🔎 Detailed Analysis - "Alex Future" Project (Maclear)

📄 Quick sheet

This project finances the expansion of Alex Future s.r.o., a Czech company specializing in the provision of skilled labor and equipment rental for the construction sector in several EU countries (Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, etc.).

• Platform : Maclear
• Project Name : Alex Future
• Borrower : Alex Future LLC
• Country / sector : Czech Republic / Services (Construction labor, Rental)
• Objective : Acquisition of heavy equipment (€410,000) and working capital (€140,000) to execute confirmed contracts
• Amount of the envelope : €550,000
• Yield rate : 14.80% APR
• Duration : 14 months
• Repayment : Principal repaid at maturity, interest paid monthly
• Collateral : Existing assets (vehicles, tools), personal guarantee of the director (Audi A6), and new equipment (excavators, etc.) purchased with the loan
• Announced collateral value: 419,933.60 EUR
• Buyback / buyback guarantee : No
• Minimum ticket : 50 EUR

📊 Financial performances

• Business Growth : The company has demonstrated strong growth in its billable hours, increasing from 3,366 in 2022 to 18,601 in 2024
  
• Revenue 2024 : 506,233 EUR
  
• Profitability 2024 : The net profit reported in 2024 is very low (54.13 EUR), which the company attributes to an intensive reinvestment policy
  
• Secured contracts : The investment thesis is based on long-term contracts already signed with major clients (EPC Group, Heitkamp BauHolding, HABAU, etc.) totaling over 75,900 hours of work for 2025-2026
  
• Projections 2025 : With this funding, the company projects a revenue of 1.3 million EUR and a net profit of 157,864 EUR (after financial costs)

🔒 Guarantees & security: Very high LTV (Major Risk)

This project is under-collateralized.

• Loan (Debt) : 550,000 EUR
  
• Collateral (Liquidation Value) : The total liquidation value of the assets (existing, new, and personal guarantee) is estimated at 419,933 EUR
  
• Coverage Ratio : The collateral only covers 76% of the loan amount
  
• LTV (Loan-to-Value) : The indicated LTV is 135%. This means that the debt is 35% higher than the liquidation value of the assets
  
• Debt/Equity Ratio : 1.32 (Moderate)

🎯 Opportunities (investment thesis)

• Attractive Yield : The rate of 14.8% APR is very good for a loan on Maclear
  
• Secured Contracts : The loan finances already contracted growth. The 75,900+ hours signed with established clients reduce commercial risk
  
• Strategic Expansion : The acquisition of heavy equipment (excavators, etc.) allows the company to reduce its reliance on subcontracting and increase its margins
  
• Promising Market : The European market for construction equipment rental (CAGR 5.22%) and the global staffing market (CAGR 6.53%) are growing

⚠️ Risk Analysis (home score)

This project has specific features that are crucial to note:

Security Risk (Collateral) — High

• This is the major weakness of the project. With an LTV of 135% and a coverage of 76%, the collateral is insufficient to cover the loan in the event of default, exposing investors to a significant capital loss

Liquidity Risk — Moderate

• The duration of 14 months is standard. The secondary market for Maclear exists, but transaction fees reduce the appeal of an early exit

Profitability Risk — Moderate

• The historical profitability is almost zero (due to reinvestment). The success of the repayment depends entirely on the company's ability to meet its ambitious projections for 2025

Execution Risk — Moderate

• The company must manage the acquisition and rapid deployment of heavy equipment while handling the complex logistics of cross-border labor

🧪 Sensitivities & scenarios

• Base scenario : Contracts are executed as planned (75,900+ hours), new equipment is deployed efficiently, and the company reaches its revenue target of €1.3 million in 2025. The loan is repaid
  
• Default Scenario : If the company defaults (for example, if contracts are canceled or if margins are lower than expected), the LTV of 135% (coverage of 76%) implies that the liquidation of assets will not cover the principal. Investors will most likely incur a capital loss

✅ Investor Check-list (Due Diligence) ​

• Analyze the LTV : The investor must be fully aware that this is an under-collateralized loan
  
• Confirm the contracts : The thesis relies entirely on the strength of the signed contracts (EPC Group, Heitkamp, etc.)
  
• Assess the profitability risk : The investor must believe in the company's ability to go from zero profitability to a profit of 157,000 EUR in one year

🧾 Verdict IndexP2P

The Alex Future project presents a clear investment thesis: financing the equipment needed to fulfill already signed contracts, thereby reducing commercial risk. The 14.8% return is very attractive for the Maclear platform.

However, the security risk is high. The loan is undercollateralized (LTV 135%, coverage 76%). In the event of default, capital recovery is compromised.

Verdict : A very risky project. The 14.8% return does not seem sufficient to offset the high risk of capital loss due to insufficient collateral. Only to be considered for a minimal portion of a highly diversified and informed portfolio.